Efficient attack countermeasure selection accounting for recovery and action costs

The losses arising from a system being hit by cyber attacks can be staggeringly high, but defending against such attacks can also be costly. This work proposes an attack countermeasure selection approach based on cost impact analysis that takes into account the impacts of actions by both the attacker and the defender. We consider a networked system providing services whose functionality depends on other components in the network. We model the costs and losses to service availability from compromises and defensive actions to the components, and show that while containment of the attack can be an effective defense, it may be more cost-efficient to allow parts of the attack to continue further whilst focusing on recovering services to a functional state. Based on this insight, we build a countermeasure selection method that chooses the most cost-effective action based on its impact on expected losses and costs over a given time horizon. Our method is evaluated using simulations in synthetic graphs representing network dependencies and vulnerabilities, and performs well in comparison to alternatives

Are We Compromised? Modelling Security Assessment Games

Abstract. Security assessments are an integral part of organisations’ strategies for protecting their digital assets and critical IT infrastructure. In this paper we propose a game-theoretic modelling of a particular form of security assessment – one which addresses the question “are we compromised?”. We do so by extending the recently proposed game “FlipIt”, which itself can be used to model the interaction between defenders and attackers under the Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) scenario. Our extension gives players the option to “test ” the state of the game before making a move. This allows one to study the scenario in which organisations have the option to perform periodic security assessments of such nature, and the benefits they may bring.

Inflationary models inducing non-Gaussian metric fluctuations

We construct explicit models of multi-field inflation in which the primordial metric fluctuations do not necessarily obey Gaussian statistics. These models are realizations of mechanisms in which non-Gaussianity is first generated by a light scalar field and then transferred into curvature fluctuations. The probability distribution functions of the metric perturbation at the end of inflation are computed. This provides a guideline for designing strategies to search for non-Gaussian signals in future CMB and large scale structure surveys.Comment: 4 pages, 7 figure

Oscillations During Inflation and the Cosmological Density Perturbations

Adiabatic (curvature) perturbations are produced during a period of cosmological inflation that is driven by a single scalar field, the inflaton. On particle physics grounds -- though -- it is natural to expect that this scalar field is coupled to other scalar degrees of freedom. This gives rise to oscillations between the perturbation of the inflaton field and the perturbations of the other scalar degrees of freedom, similar to the phenomenon of neutrino oscillations. Since the degree of the mixing is governed by the squared mass matrix of the scalar fields, the oscillations can occur even if the energy density of the extra scalar fields is much smaller than the energy density of the inflaton field. The probability of oscillation is resonantly amplified when perturbations cross the horizon and the perturbations in the inflaton field may disappear at horizon crossing giving rise to perturbations in scalar fields other than the inflaton. Adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations are inevitably correlated at the end of inflation and we provide a simple expression for the cross-correlation in terms of the slow-roll parameters.Comment: 23 pages, uses LaTeX, added few reference

Modulational instability in nonlocal nonlinear Kerr media

We study modulational instability (MI) of plane waves in nonlocal nonlinear Kerr media. For a focusing nonlinearity we show that, although the nonlocality tends to suppress MI, it can never remove it completely, irrespectively of the particular profile of the nonlocal response function. For a defocusing nonlinearity the stability properties depend sensitively on the response function profile: for a smooth profile (e.g., a Gaussian) plane waves are always stable, but MI may occur for a rectangular response. We also find that the reduced model for a weak nonlocality predicts MI in defocusing media for arbitrary response profiles, as long as the intensity exceeds a certain critical value. However, it appears that this regime of MI is beyond the validity of the reduced model, if it is to represent the weakly nonlocal limit of a general nonlocal nonlinearity, as in optics and the theory of Bose-Einstein condensates.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Reddening law and interstellar dust properties along Magellanic sight-lines

This study establishes that SMC, LMC and Milky Way extinction curves obey the same extinction law which depends on the 2200A bump size and one parameter, and generalizes the Cardelli, Clayton and Mathis (1989) relationship. This suggests that extinction in all three galaxies is of the same nature. The role of linear reddening laws over all the visible/UV wavelength range, particularly important in the SMC but also present in the LMC and in the Milky Way, is also highlighted and discussed.Comment: accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science. 16 pages, 12 figures. Some figures are colour plot

Identification of Novel Craniofacial Regulatory Domains Located far Upstream of SOX9 and Disrupted in Pierre Robin Sequence.

Mutations in the coding sequence of SOX9 cause campomelic dysplasia (CD), a disorder of skeletal development associated with 46,XY disorders of sex development (DSDs). Translocations, deletions, and duplications within a ∼2 Mb region upstream of SOX9 can recapitulate the CD-DSD phenotype fully or partially, suggesting the existence of an unusually large cis-regulatory control region. Pierre Robin sequence (PRS) is a craniofacial disorder that is frequently an endophenotype of CD and a locus for isolated PRS at ∼1.2-1.5 Mb upstream of SOX9 has been previously reported. The craniofacial regulatory potential within this locus, and within the greater genomic domain surrounding SOX9, remains poorly defined. We report two novel deletions upstream of SOX9 in families with PRS, allowing refinement of the regions harboring candidate craniofacial regulatory elements. In parallel, ChIP-Seq for p300 binding sites in mouse craniofacial tissue led to the identification of several novel craniofacial enhancers at the SOX9 locus, which were validated in transgenic reporter mice and zebrafish. Notably, some of the functionally validated elements fall within the PRS deletions. These studies suggest that multiple noncoding elements contribute to the craniofacial regulation of SOX9 expression, and that their disruption results in PRS

Knowledge integration in a multiple classifier system

This paper introduces a knowledge integration framework based on Dempster-Shafer's mathematical theory of evidence for integrating classification results derived from multiple classifiers. This framework enables us to understand in which situations the classifiers give uncertain responses, to interpret classification evidence, and allows the classifiers to compensate for their individual deficiencies. Under this framework, we developed algorithms to model classification evidence and combine classification evidence form difference classifiers, we derived inference rules from evidential intervals for reasoning about classification results. The algorithms have been implemented and tested. Implementation issues, performance analysis and experimental results are presented.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44300/1/10489_2004_Article_BF00117809.pd

Observational constraints on the curvaton model of inflation

Simple curvaton models can generate a mixture of of correlated primordial adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. The baryon and cold dark matter isocurvature modes differ only by an observationally null mode in which the two perturbations almost exactly compensate, and therefore have proportional effects at linear order. We discuss the CMB anisotropy in general mixed models, and give a simple approximate analytic result for the large scale CMB anisotropy. Working numerically we use the latest WMAP observations and a variety of other data to constrain the curvaton model. We find that models with an isocurvature contribution are not favored relative to simple purely adiabatic models. However a significant primordial totally correlated baryon isocurvature perturbation is not ruled out. Certain classes of curvaton model are thereby ruled out, other classes predict enough non-Gaussianity to be detectable by the Planck satellite. In the appendices we review the relevant equations in the covariant formulation and give series solutions for the radiation dominated era.Comment: Minor changes and corrections to match version accepted by PR